The VAMPIRE index is contained in a report titled 'Unsettling Suburbia: The New Landscape of Oil and Mortgage Vulnerability in Australian Cities' available from Monday, 11 August on the Urban Research Program website: http://www.griffith.edu.au/centre/urp

The VAMPIRE (Vulnerability Assessment for Mortgage, Petroleum and Inflation Risks and Expenses) index identifies the relative degree of socio-economic stress in suburbs in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.

This is the first release of new figures since the team devised the index in 2006 and the new report revealed the spread of the crisis.

Researchers Dr Jago Dodson and Dr Neil Sipe said fuel and mortgage stress had crept steadily inward from the fringes.

"In our earlier study, areas of stress were largely located at the outer suburban mortgage belts where car dependency is high," Dr Dodson said.

"In this study we have seen the number and geographical range of vulnerable households creep inwards as fuel costs and interest rates rise."

The new study also revealed that gaps between the most and least vulnerable had persisted over the 2001-2006 period.

"The result is a highly regressive pattern in which the impacts of higher fuel costs and increased interest rates fall on those with least capacity to absorb these impacts," he said.

"Worse, the deficits in urban infrastructure and services meant the more vulnerable households had less ability to adapt to higher fuel costs by taking public transport."

He said those who had been able to shift to public transport appeared to have done so in increasing numbers.

"Public transport use in Sydney had steadily declined between 2000 and 2005, but the sharp rise in fuel costs forced commuters onto trains. Between 2005 and 2007 the number of train journeys jumped by 11 million."

"Across Australia's cities public transport is bursting at the seams during peak hour, which gives clear evidence people will use public transport when it becomes just too costly not too."

Dr Dodson said the problem demanded a major state and federal government policy shift in which all governments united to develop a national plan to roll out new suburban public transport infrastructure and services.

"In the '90s we saw federal projects such as Auslink contribute to outer urban road infrastructure, but there has been no national public transport policy," he said.

"State governments nationwide are debating measures such as underground loops and light rail which is great, but will only assist inner-urban residents who are already the least vulnerable in society. We need to get new trains and buses into our outer suburbs."

He said policy measures focussed on reducing the up-front price of petrol would not reduce vulnerability long term

"Since WWII Australia's cities have been planned on the presumption that cars running on low-priced fuel would be the dominant means of transportation," he said.

"The Australian Senate estimates 'peak oil' to occur by 2030, so a broad, comprehensive plan to reconstruct Australian suburbs to reduce petrol reliance must begin now."

Summary:

Overall national trends: the vulnerability gap widens.
• The most vulnerable areas remained highly vulnerable.
• Public transport use increased in areas in which a reasonable service was available.
• Vulnerability crept from the fringes inwards as prices increased.

City by city summary:

Sydney:
Low vulnerability
North Sydney, Mosman, Potts Point, Pymble.
Very high vulnerability:
Cabramatta, Parramatta, Hebersham, Fairfield East.

Sydney became markedly more vulnerable with 41% of districts seeing their oil/mortgage vulnerability worsen. Just 18% of districts became less vulnerable.

Brisbane
Low vulnerability:
Indooroopilly New Farm, Coorparoo, Bulimba.
Very high vulnerability:
Browns Plains, Caboolture, Redcliffe, Capalaba.

Brisbane coped best out of the Australian cities with the areas in which oil/mortgage vulnerability increased almost exactly offset by areas in which vulnerability declined.
Brisbane also experienced a huge boost in public transport patronage, growing an average of 9.7% each year between 2004 and 2007. In April 2008 1800 bus services were forced to abandon passengers at stops due to overcrowding.

Melbourne:
Low vulnerability:
Port Melbourne, Brunswick, Camberwell, Bentleigh
Very high vulnerability:
Deer Park, Beaconsfield, Roxburgh Park, Knoxfield

In Melbourne, 42% of districts became more vulnerable, while 24% became less vulnerable.
Melbourne rail patronage grew more than 10% annually from 137 million boardings in 2004 to 200 million in 2008. In March 2008 the government added 200 weekly services.

Adelaide:
Low vulnerability:
Central Adelaide, North Adelaide, Hyde Park, Beaumont.
Very high vulnerability:
Wingfield, Seaford, Parafield Gardens, Elizabeth.

In Adelaide 38% of districts became more vulnerable while 17% became less vulnerable. As with most cities, the areas of reducing oil and mortgage vulnerability were found within 10km of the CBD.

Perth:
Low vulnerability:
Central Perth, Crawley, Claremont, Carine.
Very high vulnerability:
Banksia Grove, Marangaroo, Huntingdale, Armadale.

In Perth, 39% became more vulnerable, while 22% became less. Unusually, there was less clear inner, middle or outer differentiation with vulnerability interspersed throughout the city.